Most of us like to think we’re rational creatures, calmly weighing facts before making decisions. Spoiler: we’re not. Our brains love to jump to conclusions — “My pizza’s late, must be the rain!” or “This test is positive, I definitely have the disease!” Enter Bayes’ theorem — a 250-year-old formula that acts like a truth…
Tag: conditional probability
Conditional Probability: Revealing the Secret Power of Context
A Slice of Pizza and a Slice of Probability Conditional probability is the math of shifting odds once new information enters the scene. How? Imagine this: You walk into a party.You see a person holding a slice of pizza. You wonder: “What’s the probability they’ll share it with me?” Same pizza, same person. The only…